Is there room at the best picture table for more than one “part two?”
This year, several installments in established franchises are banging on the Academy’s door, hoping for a coveted slot in the category. With no clear frontrunner, this could be the season that more than one sequel secures a place in the race. That has happened only once, in 2022 (“Avatar: The Way of Water” and “Top Gun: Maverick”).
The Oscars have long hesitated to embrace anything with a Roman numeral affixed to it. Historically, only nine sequels have been nominated for best picture: “The Bells of St. Mary’s” (1945), “The Godfather Part II” (1974), “The Godfather Part III” (1990), “The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers” (2002), “The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King” (2003), “Toy Story 3” (2010), “Mad Max: Fury Road” (2015), “Avatar: The Way of Water” (2022) and “Top Gun: Maverick” (2022). Just two — “Godfather 2” and “Return of the King” — won.
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Read: You can see all Academy Award predictions in all 23 categories on one page on theVarietyAwards Circuit.
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Hoping to beat the odds, Warner Bros. has three franchises to steer: Denis Villeneuve’s “Dune: Part Two,” George Miller’s “Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga” and Todd Phillips’ “Joker: Folie à Deux.” However, the commercial reception for “Furiosa” and “Joker 2,” both of which underperformed at the box office, likely means neither will be an awards season juggernaut. WB is now banking on “Dune 2” to pick up the slack. With a rerelease in L.A. and industry heavyweight (and last year’s winner for “Oppenheimer”) Christopher Nolan moderating Q&As for voters, the sci-fi epic is the studio’s best shot at Oscar gold — and maybe the most promising sequel contender overall. A potential hurdle is that since a third installment is on the horizon, the Academy may prefer to wait to recognize Villeneuve’s achievements (as it did with Peter Jackson and “The Lord of the Rings”).
Another heavyweight sequel generating buzz is Ridley Scott’s long awaited “Gladiator II,” from Paramount Pictures. The original film grossed more than $450 million worldwide and landed five Oscars, including best picture. However, Scott — despite being nominated three times — has yet to win for director. A nod for “Gladiator 2” would make him the oldest person, at 87, to be recognized in the category. While the odds are stacked against Scott to be honored for a sequel, Francis Ford Coppola did win for “Godfather 2” after losing the directing award for the 1972 original film to Bob Fosse (“Cabaret”).
Scott’s past films have been a mixed bag — “The Martian” was a critical success, while “Napoleon” and “House of Gucci” were more divisive. But guiding a film overflowing with stunning effects could put Scott on the path of Oscar winners Ang Lee (“Life of Pi”) and Alfonso Cuarón (“Gravity”), whose technical brilliance propelled them to victory, even if their films came up ultimately short in the best picture race.
The possibilities aren’t limited to only live-action movies. Pixar’s “Inside Out 2,” the highest-grossing animated film in history, is gunning for serious awards recognition. Disney is planning a push for it in adapted screenplay, original score and even best picture. Only three animated films — “Beauty and the Beast” (1991), “Up” (2010) and “Toy Story 3” (2010) — have been nominated for picture, and all were Disney productions. It also helps to have a filmmaking team willing to support a hopeful.
“Campaigning for sequels is harder because you are battling preconceived expectations that they may or may not live up to,” one veteran awards strategist tells Variety. “And if you don’t have talent willing to play the game, it becomes more difficult.”
Meanwhile, Disney-owned Marvel Studios aims to get in on the action with “Deadpool & Wolverine,” which holds the record for highest-grossing R-rated film. The studio is campaigning for a Golden Globe in the comedy category and for best film at the Producers Guild of America. The Mouse House also plans to deliver music pushes for Barry Jenkins’ photorealistic prequel “Mufasa: The Lion King” and David G. Derrick Jr’s animated sequel “Moana 2.”
With Hollywood increasingly focused on making franchise films, and even its most storied filmmakers revisiting their past successes, “sequel” is no longer a dirty word. Nor is it an obstacle in the awards-season arena.
Below are this week’s Oscar predictions (in alphabetical order) in all 23 categories. For comprehensive rankings, go to each of the individual category pages, which will be updated throughout this weekend’s Middleburg Film Festival.
Current Oscars Tracking
(Oct. 17, 2024)
Best Picture“Anora”
“Blitz”
“The Brutalist”
“A Complete Unknown”
“Conclave”
“Dune: Part Two”
“Emilia Pérez”
“Gladiator II”
“The Room Next Door”
“Wicked”
Director
Jacques Audiard, “Emilia Pérez”
Sean Baker, “Anora”
Brady Corbet, “The Brutalist”
Walter Salles, “I’m Still Here”
Ridley Scott, “Gladiator II”
ActorAdrien Brody, “The Brutalist”
Timothée Chalamet, “A Complete Unknown”
Colman Domingo, “Sing Sing”
Ralph Fiennes, “Conclave”
Paul Mescal, “Gladiator II”
Actress
Angelina Jolie, “Maria”
Karla Sofía Gascón, “Emilia Pérez”
Mikey Madison, “Anora”
Saoirse Ronan, “The Outrun”
Tilda Swinton, “The Room Next Door”
Supporting ActorKieran Culkin, “A Real Pain”
Guy Pearce, “The Brutalist”
Stanley Tucci, “Conclave”
John Turturro, “The Room Next Door”
Denzel Washington, “Gladiator II”
Supporting Actress
Danielle Deadwyler, “The Piano Lesson”
Selena Gomez, “Emilia Pérez”
Ariana Grande, “Wicked”
Saoirse Ronan, “Blitz”
Zoe Saldaña, “Emilia Pérez”
Original Screenplay“Anora”
“The Brutalist”
“A Real Pain”
“The Seed of the Sacred Fig”
“September 5”
Adapted Screenplay
“Conclave”
“Emilia Pérez”
“I’m Still Here”
“The Room Next Door”
“Sing Sing”
Animated Feature
“Flow”
“Inside Out 2”
“Memoir of a Snail”
“Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl”
“The Wild Robot”
Production Design
“Blitz”
“Dune: Part Two”
“Emilia Pérez”
“Gladiator II”
“Wicked”
Cinematography
“The Brutalist”
“Dune: Part Two”
“Emilia Pérez”
“Gladiator II”
“Nosferatu”
Costume Design
“Blitz”
“Dune: Part Two”
“Gladiator II”
“Nosferatu”
“Wicked”
Film Editing
“Anora”
“The Brutalist”
“Dune: Part Two”
“Emilia Pérez”
“Gladiator II”
Makeup and Hairstyling
“The Apprentice”
“Dune: Part Two”
“Saturday Night”
“The Substance”
“Wicked”
Sound
“Blitz”
“The Brutalist”
“Dune: Part Two”
“Emilia Pérez”
“Gladiator Ii”
Visual Effects
“Dune: Part Two”
“Gladiator II”
“Here”
“Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes”
“Wicked”
Original Score
“The Brutalist”
“Dune: Part Two”
“Gladiator II”
“The Room Next Door”
“The Wild Robot”
Original Song
“Winter Coat” from “Blitz”
“Mi Camino” from “Emilia Pérez”
“Piece by Piece” from “Piece by Piece”
“Kiss the Sky” from “The Wild Robot”
“Harper and Will Go West” from “Will & Harper”
Documentary Feature
“Black Box Diaries”
“Dahomey”
“Daughters”
“No Other Land”
“Sugarcane”
International Feature
“Dahomey” from Senegal
“Emilia Pérez” from France
“Grand Tour” from Portugal
“I’m Still Here” from Brazil
“The Seed of the Sacred Fig” from Germany
Animated Short
“Above Ground”
“An Almost Christmas Story”
“A Guest From Elsewhere”
“Maybe Elephants”
“Remember Us”
Documentary Short
“Chasing Roo”
“Denial”
“The Final Copy of Ilon Specht”
“Julia’s Stepping Stones”
“Wings of Dust”
Live Action Short
“Anuja”
“Bogotá Story”
“Motherland”
“1Up”
“Say Hi After You Die”